Friday 07/24/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday 07/24/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Trend Report

Friday, July 24

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Toronto is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:30 PM
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Calgary is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
British Columbia is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
British Columbia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL WRITE-UP

Week 4 CFL games

Friday, July 24

Toronto (1-2) @ Winnipeg (1-2)-- Argos gave up 46-44 points in losing last two games; they've been outscored 45-0 in second half of their two road games. Argos turned ball over five times in each of last two games. Bombers have run ball 29 times for 19 yards in three games, completed less than half their passes in all three games, but are +7 in turnovers.

Calgary (1-2) @ BCLions (1-2)-- Both teams won first game last week, as Stampeders crushed Toronto 44-9, but Stamps still had 16 penalties, have 30 in last two games. Underdog won all three Lion games, with all three going over total- BC protected ball better in first win last week, with just one turnover, after giving ball away eight times first two games.

 

[JDizzle311]

Dont buy jeff benton!

The guy sucks and you"re just wasting your money!

Save it for people who can actually win consistently....no, he hasnt lost but he wins marginally and cant be trusted in baseball

 

[goldencontender]

Friday 11-1 system side-Gc

On Friday the comp play is on the Boston Redsox.Game 924 at 7:10 eastern.The Redsox fit a solid 36-13 system,which I narrowed down to an 11-1 subset that wins by an average score of 7-3.What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a road favored loss if ther total was 10 or higher in that loss and tonights opponent is off a road dog loss scoring 4 or less.Boston is currently on a 5 game losing streak.However they return home against an Oriole team that they have handled rather easily.Boston is 17-5 at home vs the O/S over the last 3 years,including 4-0 this year.When playing the first game of a home series off a loss they have won 3 of 4 times this year.Coming off a day off they are 10-1.Tonight Boston has B.Penny taking the ball and they have won 6 of his 9 home starts,One of them he looks to make amends for.Back in April the O/S hit him pretty good scoring 8 runs in just 3 innings.Baltimore counters with Bergensen tonight and he pitched rather well against Boston in the beginning of the month.That was the first time the sox saw him and he allowed just 1 run in 8 innings.This time will be much different.This time Bergensen faces the Redsox in Boston.In his road starts this year he hasnt been nearly as good.Baltimore has lost 6 of his 7 road starts this year.The Comps have been hot this week cashing the last three.On Friday I have 2 sharp plays from a 17-1 system and a 94% system total,with a 100% subset..For the Bonus Play though its Boston to snap their losing streak.bol GC-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Toronto Blue Jays (-134)
Fri Jul 24 '09 7:05p

We’re backing the best pitcher in baseball today as Roy Halladay takes the mound for the Blue Jays in the opener of a three-game series against the D-Rays
.
Talks of trading Halladay have started to die down and it appears that Toronto will hang on to their veteran righthander. That’s great news for Jays fans but bad news for any team in the American League who has to face him. Halladay is 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA but his only two losses in his last 14 outings have come against the Devil Rays. In both games Halladay, who allowed just five earned runs in 13-innings, was victimized by poor run support. Halladay is 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA in his career against TB.

Matt Garza takes a 6-7 record and a 3.80 ERA into his showdown against Doc Halladay. Garza’s last win came back on June 30th against Toronto a game in which he allowed one run in seven innings of work in a 4-1 Rays victory. Garza is a guy with “ace” stuff and he’ll definitely need to bring his A game against the good doctor.

This game features the 4th and 5th best hitting clubs in the American League. Tampa Bay is hitting .268 and averaging 5.2 runs per outing while Toronto also has a team batting average of .268 and averages 4.8 runs per game. The Blue Jays have been solid at home posting a 29-21 record while the Devil Rays have struggled on the road where they’ve gone 22-29. If the game turns into a battle of the bullpens, then the Rays will have definite advantage. Their bully is ranked second in the AL behind Boston and fourth in the majors.

Tampa Bay has won five of six against the Blue Jays this year, including two of three at Toronto in June.

It would be hard to find two more evenly matched teams. However getting Halladay at this price, at home, is too attractive to pass up. Look for Halladay and Blue Jays to come up big tonight in Toronto.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Rose

Toronto Argonauts +4.5 (-110)
Fri Jul 24 '09 7:35p

After opening up the 2009 CFL betting season by dropping 20 points in the first quarter against Hamilton, the Argonauts have gotten absolutely no offensive production on the scoreboard. Even though they’ve only scored 55 points in their L/11 quarters of action, QB Kerry Joseph still headed into Week 3 CFL wagering as the top quarterback in the CFL both in terms of passing yards (880) and passing touchdowns (6). He is off to a much better start this year than he was last season when he was touted as the savior for a team that had struggled offensively in years past. Unfortunately, things haven’t panned out over the L/2 weeks for the double blue, as they have been demolished by Calgary and Saskatchewan in that stretch.

Save a big victory over Calgary in Week 2, there hasn’t been much to cheer about in Winnipeg this season. Last week, the Bombers put up a miserable offensive effort in Hamilton, but that has pretty much been the story for the season. QB Stefan LeFors, tabbed the starting quarterback at the start of the season, has struggled mightily in his first year as a CFL starter. He has only completed 44.2% of his passes this year, easily the lowest amongst starting QBs in the CFL. He’s only thrown two touchdowns, the same number as scored by LB Siddeeq Shabazz. Shabazz has forced three turnovers on the season, and he directly accounted for 14 of Winnipeg’s 72 points on the season.

Toronto has a lot of off-the-field issues with WR Arland Bruce being sent home, but the reality is that this team is just better than Winnipeg. Until the Bombers can figure out how to get a passing attack going, there’s no reason that they should be laying four points to anyone in this league.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Jul 24
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
-130 at JAMAICA > 12h.
The Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night with game one of the series set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. The Phillies bounced back from a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday by defeating the Padres 9 to 4 on Thursday night as part of a one-game series. The Phillies also took the three-game series from the Cubs even though they lost the third and final game. Philadelphia is 20-8 (+13.0) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season, 43-22 (+16.6) against NL Central opponents the last 2 seasons and 49-25 (+25.0) versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game on the season. The Phillies will send JA Happ to the bump with his 5-0 record and an ERA of 2.68. St. Louis will counter with Joel Pineiro who is 8-9 on the year with an ERA of 3.09 and he is 4-5 on the road with an ERA of 3.68 in those games. A check of the data base shows we have two MLB Systems active for tonight’s contest with the first telling us to Play Against MLB road teams who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or better over his last five starts, 126-42 (+64.6) the last five years and 20-4 (+14.6) this season. The second system says to Play On MLB home teams who average five or more runs per game now facing a starter with an ERA of 3.70 or better on the season with a pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 his last three outings, 42-11 (+28.4) the last five seasons and a perfect 3-0 (+3.0) this season. Lay the chalk with the host as the Phillies continue their solid play and grab game one of this series against the Cardinals.

Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 5 St. Louis Cardinals 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

FRIDAY ANGELS -155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Thursday free winner on Seattle to make it a 7-1-1 comp play run the last 9 days.

For Friday night we like what the Atlanta Braves have been doing of late, and will back them in their series opener at Miller Park against the struggling Brewers.


Milwaukee has lost 12 of their last 18 games overall, and they have not won too many of Manny Parra's starts of late, as they are just 1-7 his last 8 home starts, and 7-21 overall the last 28 times Parra has been the listed starter.


Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5, and 10 of their last 14 overall. Javier Vazquez may only be 7-7 for the year, but in 8 of his last 9 starts he has allowed 2 earned runs or less, and the righty is 2-0 his last 2 trips to the hill to boot.


Take the Braves to continue their winning ways in the weekend opener.


Play on Atlanta.

3♦ ATLANTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

G-Man now 9-2 the last 11 days for free.

Friday night at Chavez Ravine I am all about backing the underdog Marlins as they look to cool down the Dodgers who have won their last 5, and LA starter Clayton Kershaw who is 5-0 his last 6 starts.


Florida has got the right guy on the mound to cool off the Dodgers, as Josh Johnson is 8-2 this season, and better still is the Marlins 12-5 mark the last 17 road starts Johnson has made.


Overall the Marlins are 25-8 when Johson makes the start, and Florida is fresh off a 3-game sweep at San Diego, and should be raring to go at Dodger Stadium, a site where they are 6-2 the last 8 meetings.


No doubt Los Angeles is the class of the senior circut thus far, but tonight the price is a little steep on LA, as this dog hunts tonight.


Take the Marlins.

1♦ FLORIDA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Nailed my second straight FREE winner on Thursday as Mark Buehrle tossed a perfect game and led the White Sox over the Rays. Today's comp winner comes on the Astros as they host the Mets.


I don't care if the Mets do have ace Johan Santana (11-7, 2.92 ERA) pitching tonight, the Astros are red hot, playing great ball and have pulled themselves right into the hunt in the N.L. Central. I'm grabbing the plus-money with Houston at home in this one.


The Astros have won five of seven since the All-Star break and just swept St. Louis in Houston the first three days of this week. They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall, 47-20 against teams with a losing record, 4-0 at home, 5-2 as a 'dog and 4-0 in their last four series openers.


On the hill for Houston is Mike Hampton (5-7, 4.63), who has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last seven outings. As a member of the Braves, Atlanta won four of his last six outings against the Mets, including his last one in September of last year when he held the Mets to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 3-2 win.


Santana is just 4-5 on the road for New York with a 4.20 ERA. The Mets have lost four of his last five roadies and last year when he pitched in Houston he lost a tough one, 5-4.

Houston is 5-2 in Hampton's last 10 starts with five full days of rest, 10-2 when he starts at home against a team with a losing record and 21-6 in his last 27 starts against losing teams. He dominates when he is counted on.


The Astros have won four straight over the Mets in Houston and five of the last seven overall with New York. Play Houston in this one.

2♦ HOUSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Jul 24, 2009 7:07PM

Toronto Blue Jays

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Toronto w/Halladay
Note: The Blue Jays send ace right-hander Roy Halladay to the hill against the Rays in Toronto tonight knowing they have won 11 of the last 14 games at home in which Halladay has been on the mound. In those games he has been in commanding KW form with 12 walks and 88 strikeouts. He's also taken it on the chin in two games against Tampa Bay this season. Look for Halladay and the Blue Jays to get their revenge here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto with Halladay.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(903) SAN DIEGO PADRES
(904) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take "Over"

If you're a big fan of offense, you probably don't mind lousy pitching. This game features two of the worst pitching staffs in the game, with San Diego ranked 26th in ERA and the Nationals dead last. And both starters are not strong at getting anyone out. Washington starter Garrett Mock (0-3, 7.71 ERA) has walked 10 batters in 16 innings along with 24 hits! Look for plenty of runs, play the Padres/Nationals over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(929) CLEVELAND INDIANS
(930) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take "(930) SEATTLE MARINERS"

The Mariners get lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith back from the DL tonight, and he's a good fit as their #5 starter. Rowland-Smith should be fired up to finally get back in action, Aaron Laffey's road numbers are nothing special, and the contending Mariners are likely to be more focused right now than an Indians squad that's waiting to see who gets traded next. I'll play Seattle in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Under 7.5

Garza and Halladay face each other and these two have 84 overs and 99 unders this season. Tampa has 18 unders and 5 overs in their last 23 on the road and under has won 28 of the last 39 meetings.

Look for an under on Friday!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

Atlanta - over Milwaukee

Javier Vazquez has a very misleading 7-7 record and if he had received a little better run support he would be serious Cy Young contender. Vazquez has an insane strikeout to walk ratio that is approaching 6:1, having picked up 141 strikeouts in 126 innings. His ERA of 2.86 is one of the best in the NL and 13 times this season he has allowed two or fewer runs in his start. The wins are finally starting to come as the offense has picked up the pace in recent games and Atlanta is 4-1 in his last five starts. Pitching on the road has been no problem for Vazquez his WHIP is 1.04 in road appearances and for the season opposing batters own just a .222 batting average against him. Since Rafael Soriano moved more firmly into a closing role the Braves bullpen has also been very sharp, including a 3.29 ERA in the last ten games. Milwaukee had one of the top bullpens in baseball for most of the season but the unit has been a complete disaster of late. The Brewers have a 5.24 ERA over the last ten games and several recent losses can be attributed to relief pitching. Since Milwaukee is still right in the thick of the NL Central race, few realize how much they are struggling but the Brewers have now lost twelve of the last 18 games. Manny Parra has made back-to-back encouraging starts but he has had too much inconsistency to be counted on in this match-up. Atlanta is hitting .300 in the last ten games and this looks like another great opportunity for the Braves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: (932) Detroit (Verlander) over Chicago

Here the veteran hurler Verlander (10-5, 3.34) is scheduled to throw in game one of the doubleheader being played in Detroit this afternoon. No matter, I will go against any opposing pitcher from the White Sox. The Tigers catch a huge break as the Sox could be a little flat after a perfect experience by lefty Buehrle yesterday against the Rays. Further, Detroit is 37-18 in the home starts thrown by Verlander, 7-0 at home versus a winning road club and 13-3 last sixteen at home. Finally, Verlander has allowed only 5 earned runs in his last 20 innings of work, so the Tigers look to be in good position starting the series.

 

[ace911]

Chris Jordan

100♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS (LIST Garza and Halladay) - Analysis due back by 1:30 p.m. eastern

100♦ TEXAS RANGERS (LIST Feldman and Greinke) -

100♦ L.A. DODGERS RUN LINE (LIST Kershaw) -

Bought, Paid, Confirmed by ME! I'll Post the write-up when it becomes available

Thanks JDizzle!

 

[cork999]

Chris Jordan

100♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS (LIST Garza and Halladay) - Analysis due back by 1:30 p.m. eastern

100♦ TEXAS RANGERS (LIST Feldman and Greinke) -

100♦ L.A. DODGERS RUN LINE (LIST Kershaw) -

Bought, Paid, Confirmed by ME! I'll Post the write-up when it becomes available

thanks djizzle for your help.